Тип публикации: статья из журнала

Год издания: 2023

Идентификатор DOI: 10.1029/2023av001024

Аннотация: <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Projections of future carbon sinks and stocks are important because they show how the world's ecosystems will respond to elevated CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> and changes in climate. Moreover, they are crucial to inform policy decisions around emissions reductions to stay within the global warmiПоказать полностьюng levels identified by the Paris Agreement. However, Earth System Models from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show substantial spread in future projections—especially of the terrestrial carbon cycle, leading to a large uncertainty in our knowledge of any remaining carbon budget (RCB). Here we evaluate the global terrestrial carbon cycle projections on a region-by-region basis and compare the global models with regional assessments made by the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, Phase 2 activity. Results show that for each region, the CMIP6 multi-model mean is generally consistent with the regional assessment, but substantial cross-model spread exists. Nonetheless, all models perform well in some regions and no region is without some well performing models. This gives confidence that the CMIP6 models can be used to look at future changes in carbon stocks on a regional basis with appropriate model assessment and benchmarking. We find that most regions of the world remain cumulative net sources of CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> between now and 2100 when considering the balance of fossil-fuels and natural sinks, even under aggressive mitigation scenarios. This paper identifies strengths and weaknesses for each model in terms of its performance over a particular region including how process representation might impact those results and sets the agenda for applying stricter constraints at regional scales to reduce the uncertainty in global projections.</jats:p>

Журнал: AGU Advances

Выпуск журнала: Т. 4, № 6

ISSN журнала: 2576604X

Издатель: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION

• Jones Chris D. (Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK)
• Ziehn Tilo (CSIRO Environment Aspendale VIC Australia)
• Anand Jatin (Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois Urbana IL USA)
• Bastos Ana (Department Biogeochemical Integratio Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie Jena Germany)
• Burke Eleanor (Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK)
• Canadell Josep G. (Global Carbon Project CSIRO Environment Canberra ACT Australia)
• Cardoso Manoel (National Institute for Space Research São José dos Campos Brazil)
• Ernst Yolandi (Global Change Institute University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg South Africa)
• Jain Atul K. (Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois Urbana IL USA)
• Jeong Sujong (Department of Environmental Planning Graduate School of Environmental Studies Seoul National University Seoul Republic of Korea)
• Keller Elizabeth D. (Victoria University of Wellington Wellington New Zealand)
• Kondo Masayuki (Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research Nagoya University Nagoya Japan)
• Lauerwald Ronny (INRAE/AgroParisTech-UMR Ecosys Université Paris-Saclay Palaiseau France)
• Lin Tzu-Shun (National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA)
• Murray-Tortarolo Guillermo (Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Morelia México)
• Nabuurs Gert-Jan (Wageningen Environmental Research Wageningen The Netherlands)
• O’Sullivan Mike (Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy University of Exeter Exeter UK)
• Poulter Ben (Biospheric Sciences Lab NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA)
• Qin Xiaoyu (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China)
• von Randow Celso (National Institute for Space Research São José dos Campos Brazil)
• Sanches Marcos (National Institute for Space Research São José dos Campos Brazil)
• Schepaschenko Dmitry (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg Austria)
• Shvidenko Anatoly (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg Austria)
• Smallman T. Luke (National Centre for Earth Observations University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK)
• Tian Hanqin (Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society Boston College Chestnut Hill MA USA)
• Villalobos Yohanna (Global Carbon Project CSIRO Environment Canberra ACT Australia)
• Wang Xuhui (College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Institute of Carbon Neutrality Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences Peking University Beijing China)
• Yun Jeongmin (Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USA)

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